Buyer Interest Cools to Multi-Year Low as Sales Hold Firm

New figures from Propertymark reveal a market entering an unusual phase of equilibrium under pressure. The average number of new prospective buyers registering at each member branch fell to 55 in June, a marked decline that reflects mounting affordability constraints and lingering economic caution. Yet sales agreed per branch held steady at 7.8, barely moved from previous months. This divergence — fewer new buyers walking through the door, but a consistent conversion rate into completed sales — tells a story of a market that is thinning at the top of the funnel while remaining resilient at the point of transaction.

For UK property investors, this is a critical distinction. A collapse in both registrations and sales would signal genuine demand destruction. Instead, what Propertymark's data suggests is a filtering effect: casual browsers and speculative buyers are stepping back, while serious, mortgage-ready purchasers continue to transact at a steady clip. This is consistent with a market recalibrating around higher borrowing costs rather than one in freefall. Average mortgage rates remaining above 5% for many two- and five-year fixed products, combined with average UK house prices sitting close to £290,000, has squeezed the pool of buyers who can realistically proceed — but those who remain appear committed.

Regional variation will be significant over the coming months. In London and the South East, including commuter markets like Surrey, high price points mean affordability pressures bite hardest, and registration declines are likely to be steeper than the national average as buyers price themselves out or delay decisions. By contrast, more affordably priced regional cities — Manchester, Leeds, Liverpool and Newcastle — may see registration numbers hold up better in relative terms, since lower average price points (often £180,000–£220,000 compared with London's £520,000-plus) leave more headroom within stretched budgets. Birmingham, buoyed by regeneration investment and HS2-adjacent development, could see a similar cushioning effect, though not immunity from the broader trend.

For buy-to-let landlords, the stable sales-to-registration ratio is a nuanced signal. Fewer buyers competing for stock theoretically eases pressure on acquisition prices, potentially improving entry yields in areas where rental demand remains robust — particularly the northern cities where rental growth has consistently outpaced the South East over the past two years. However, landlords should not mistake reduced buyer footfall for a soft market; with sales agreed holding firm, well-priced, well-located stock is still moving efficiently, meaning bargain-hunting strategies premised on prolonged void periods or forced price reductions may prove overly optimistic.

First-time buyers sit at the sharper end of this trend. Many will be among those withdrawing from the registration pool, priced out by the combination of elevated mortgage rates, tightened affordability stress-testing, and the erosion of deposit-saving power amid persistent inflation in living costs. Estate agents report that first-time buyer activity is increasingly concentrated at the lower end of the market and in areas with strong shared ownership or Help to Buy successor scheme availability. Developers targeting this segment, particularly in regional cities with active first-time buyer incentives, may need to sharpen pricing and incentive packages to sustain sales velocity through the second half of 2025.

Looking ahead six to twelve months, the most plausible trajectory is continued stabilisation rather than sharp correction. Should the Bank of England proceed with further gradual rate cuts — as many economists anticipate given softening inflation data — buyer registrations could recover modestly into early 2026, particularly if mortgage products below 4.5% become more widely available. Commercial investors and developers should treat the current period as a consolidation phase: transaction volumes are proving sturdier than sentiment indicators suggest, and branches converting registrations to sales at a consistent rate indicates genuine, rather than speculative, underlying demand. The risk to this outlook lies in any renewed inflationary shock or fiscal policy surprise — such as changes to stamp duty thresholds or capital gains treatment on second properties — which could disrupt the fragile balance Propertymark's figures currently describe.