Burnham's Affordability Pledge: What It Means for Landlords and Buyers

Andy Burnham's elevation to Downing Street arrives with a headline promise that will reverberate through every corner of the UK property market: making life more affordable. For a Prime Minister who built his political career in Greater Manchester championing rent stabilisation, social housing expansion and devolved control over transport and planning, the signals are clear even before detailed policy is published. Investors, landlords and developers should expect an administration far more interventionist on housing costs than its predecessors, and one prepared to use the machinery of national government to replicate policies Burnham has already piloted at city-region level.

The significance for property professionals cannot be overstated. Average UK private rents rose 8.5% in the year to mid-2024 according to ONS figures, while mortgage rates, though softening from their 2023 peaks, remain roughly double pre-pandemic levels at around 4.5-5% for standard two-year fixes. Against this backdrop, a Prime Minister explicitly campaigning on affordability suggests policy intervention in rent-setting, first-time buyer support, and potentially taxation of buy-to-let portfolios. Landlords who have grown accustomed to a decade of incremental regulatory tightening – tenant fee bans, EPC requirements, Section 21 reform proposals – should now brace for the possibility of more direct rent controls, an approach Burnham has previously lobbied for unsuccessfully as Greater Manchester Mayor.

Regionally, the impact will be uneven. Manchester itself, where Burnham piloted selective licensing schemes and pushed hard for rent stabilisation powers that Westminster repeatedly denied him, could become the testing ground for a national rollout, with Leeds and Liverpool likely candidates for early adoption given similarly stretched rental markets and strong Labour metro mayoralties. Birmingham, still recovering from council financial distress, may see any affordability measures paired with additional central government investment given the city's acute housing supply shortfall. London and the South East, including commuter markets like Surrey, present a different challenge: average rents in the capital already exceed £2,100 a month, and any rent control mechanism risks accelerating landlord exits from a market where yields are already compressed to 3-4%, potentially worsening supply rather than easing costs.

For buy-to-let landlords, the calculus is shifting again. Many have already retreated from the sector following the phased withdrawal of mortgage interest relief and the 3% stamp duty surcharge introduced from 2016 onwards; UK Finance data shows buy-to-let mortgage completions down nearly 30% since 2022. A Burnham government signalling rent caps or stricter tenancy protections could accelerate this exodus, particularly among smaller, leveraged landlords in northern cities where yields have historically compensated for lower capital growth. Paradoxically, this could benefit larger institutional investors and build-to-rent operators, who are better placed to absorb regulatory compliance costs and who Burnham has previously courted as partners in Greater Manchester's housing strategy.

First-time buyers stand to gain more unambiguously, assuming Burnham follows through on themes he has championed locally: expanded social and affordable housing quotas within Section 106 agreements, greater use of public land for below-market housing, and potential reform of Help to Buy's successor schemes. Newcastle and other northern cities with lower average house prices – around £165,000 compared to London's £520,000 – are best positioned to see genuine affordability improvements, since supply-side interventions have more room to bite where land costs are lower. In London and Surrey, where land values dominate build costs, affordability gains will be harder won without more radical planning reform.

Developers and commercial investors face a mixed outlook. Burnham's track record suggests continued enthusiasm for devolved planning powers and brownfield regeneration funding, both of which could accelerate delivery timelines in cities like Manchester and Liverpool where he has direct relationships with local authorities. However, any move towards mandatory affordable housing quotas above the current 20-35% range typically negotiated under Section 106 could compress development viability, particularly for schemes already under pressure from the Building Safety Act's remediation costs and elevated construction material inflation, currently running near 4% annually.

The next six to twelve months will be defining. Expect an early housing white paper, likely testing rent stabilisation mechanisms in pilot cities before any national rollout, alongside renewed investment pledges for social housing that will favour northern regeneration areas over the South East. Landlords with concentrated portfolios in high-demand rental markets should model scenarios involving capped rent increases now rather than waiting for legislation. Developers should prioritise engagement with combined authorities in Manchester, Leeds and Liverpool, where policy alignment with Downing Street will likely translate into faster planning consents and funding access. The affordability agenda is not rhetorical positioning; it is a continuation of policies Burnham spent a decade trying to implement regionally, now backed by the full authority of national government.